Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Sections Packers vs. Rams: 5 things to watch and Week 5 forecast

Up and Down The Green Bay Packers will try to find the beginning of some stability in the West when Matt LaFleur’s team travels to Los Angeles to face the struggling Rams on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

The Packers are 2-2 with wins over two AFC South opponents and two losses to NFC opponents. A challenging start to the year – highlighted by Jordan Love’s knee injury – needs to ease heading into this stretch. The Rams, whose quarterback is Matthew Stafford and are coached by Sean McVay, are 1-3, and the team’s only victory required an improbable comeback.

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No team – especially one with a championship pedigree like the Rams – should be overlooked. However, this is a must-win game for the Packers on the road.

Here are five things to watch and the forecast for Week 5:

Recipient’s situation

Jayden Reed looks like a star. Christian Watson has an ankle injury and will probably miss the game. Dontayvion Wicks is an elite point guard who struggles to finish catches. Romeo Doubs missed training on Thursday and Friday due to a mysterious off-field situation. There are a lot of moving parts in Jordan Love and the Packers’ goal. With both Watson and Doubs out, the Packers will need more of Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath on Sunday. Melton improved as a pass catcher at the end of last season and has legitimate speed, and Heath could be an significant blocker in a run-based offensive scheme. Will Doub’s situation distract from the Packers’ passing game?

Walker vs verse

Matchup of youthful, rising top players to watch on Sunday: Packers left Rasheed Walker against Rams top receiver Jared Verse. Walker, while susceptible to penalties early on, has performed admirably as a pass protector (5th in pass block win rate according to ESPN). Verse, a first-round pick, is arguably the best rookie pass rusher. He has 17 pressures and a high pass rush win rate (8th in rush pass win rate) through four games. They will face each other on most passing snaps on Sunday. Can Walker keep Verse out of the pocket? If he is protected, Jordan Love will have the opportunity to attack the Rams’ shaky secondary on the field. The Rams front is probably underrated – Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske are a youthful and disruptive front four.

A hurried battle

Without Cooper Kupp and Puk Nacua, the Rams’ best offensive weapon is fending off Kyren Williams, who leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns and is over 50% entering Week 5. The Rams offensive line is still settling in, but they rank third in run block win rate. Will the Packers be able to stop Williams and the running game early by forcing Matthew Stafford into obvious passing situations? On offense, don’t be surprised if it’s a Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson weighty game plan. The Rams have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in all four games this season, and Rams opponents are averaging 5.0 rushing yards. Even the Bears were able to run the ball to the Rams. On Sunday, the Packers could lean on the Rams’ offense and suck the life out of their opponent’s pass-rush potential.

Encore of love

The Packers turned the ball over four times last week, including three on Jordan Love’s interceptions. In his first game back, Love looked a bit rusty early on, and it certainly wasn’t effortless for him to deal with Brian Flores’ weighty attacking and disguise schedule after missing two weeks with a knee injury. Expect Love to bounce back on Sunday. In 2024, the Rams allowed just three goals, including just one interception. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have thrown eight touchdown passes and just one pick in four games against the Rams this season. This matchup should be a good opportunity for Love to play his most effective and error-free game of the year. The Rams rank last in passing yards allowed per attempt (9.1) and second-to-last in passing yards allowed (122.7) in 2024.

Explosive moves

The Packers lead the NFL in thrilling action through four games. Although the Packers were quite inconsistent down to downs and even susceptible to penalties at times, the Packers created scoring opportunities time and time again with explosive plays in both the running and passing games. Can the Rams’ penniless defense keep the Packers from adding more explosive plays to their league-leading total? Another factor to consider: The Rams are in the bottom half of the league in red zone defense. Is this the week the Packers combine explosive play with red zone finishing?

Prediction: Packers 30, Rams 20 (0-4)

My weekly prediction is a 28-0 loss in the first half. Like the Packers last week, I desperately need a break to get back on track. Can the Rams provide something resembling a muffed punt inside the 10-yard line? In many ways, the Rams look like the perfect opponent — Sean McVay’s team is struggling to protect the passer, the team’s two best receivers are out, and the Rams are 31st in scoring defense thanks to a frail run defense and a shaky secondary. Can the Packers capitalize on this? Love’s passing game looks ready to explode, even if there are a few question marks at receiver at the end of the week, and you can bet the pass rush will be looking to rebound after a ponderous start. Add to that the environment at SoFi Stadium, which is mostly Packers fans, and Matt LaFleur’s team should be victorious. The only caveat is the potential distraction from Romeo Doubs’ absence. The Packers can’t let what happens there translate into Sunday’s performance.

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