Even after a convincing home loss to the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers enter their bye week with a 6-3 record and would be in the NFC playoffs if the season ended today.
Sure, the Packers are third in the NFC North, and two disappointing home losses in the division have cast doubt on Matt LaFleur’s team as a top contender. But the Packers haven’t come close to playing their best football through nine weeks and are still a few self-made mistakes away from being 7-2 or better. Compared to last season, when they were 3-6 after nine games, the Packers are in an incredible position.
Great teams get sizzling at the right time, and the Packers must now apply their bye week to recuperate and find ways to heat up in the final two months of the season.
Don’t feel like starting the week saying goodbye? Here are some reasons for optimism at the beginning of the week off:
— The Packers are eighth in DVOA, fourth in yards per game, 11th in yards per game and sixth in turnover margin through nine weeks. This is clearly a good football team Very places to grow.
— The Packers offense ranks eighth in DVOA despite two separate injuries to Jordan Love and all the inconsistencies in the passing game. This was an explosive offense that needs improvement in terms of drive-to-drive consistency and finishing in the red zone.
— The Packers defense ranks 13th in DVOA, a significant improvement over last year, when Green Bay finished 27th last season under Joe Barry. The improvement came despite all the inconsistencies in the pass rush up front and some question marks at linebacker and cornerback.
— Josh Jacobs has an ankle to heal, but he could be a game-changer in the long run — just like Aaron Jones, who finished last season. Jacobs ranks among the NFL’s top running backs in yards after forced contacts and missed tackles, and his productivity will be even greater as the weather begins to change.
— Jordan Love had 10 interceptions but was only credited with 10 successful plays per Pro Football Focus. Love hasn’t protected the football consistently this season, but he has been severely punished in the interception department. For example, Dak Prescott leads quarterbacks this season with 16 turnover-worthy plays, but he only has eight interceptions. Josh Allen has 12 successful plays but only two interceptions. Love has to be better, but there is a good chance that Love’s luck will even out.
— The Packers rank 27th in special teams DVOA, but much of the negative impact stems from Brayden Narveson’s five missed tackles early. Brandon McManus has only one miss in three games and Daniel Whelan is having a great season. The rematches need to be better, but Keisean Nixon will likely get more kicks as the weather changes. The Packers didn’t allow a punt or kick to be blocked and generally did well against kicks and punts.
— In their last eight games, the Packers have played just three games against teams ranked in the top 16 in DVOA (49ers, Lions, Vikings) and four games against teams ranked 23rd or lower (Bears twice, Dolphins, Saints).
— The Packers are averaging 5.0 rushing yards and have gained nearly 1,400 rushing yards in nine games. They rank in the top 10 in the NFL in attempts, rushing yards and yards per rush.
— The defense has 19 takeaways, including multiple takeaways in seven of nine games. Takeaways can be sporadic, and the Packers have had zero in two of their last three games, but Hafley’s defense is much better when it comes to taking the ball away.
— The defensive third ranks seventh overall. Combining takeaways with third-down stops is a powerful recipe for a winning defense.
— The Packers dropped a staggering 19 passes, including an NFL-high seven from Jayden Reed and six from Dontayvion Wicks. Reed is too good to continue giving up football at this rate. It’s unclear whether Wicks – who continues to be a consistent opener – will be able to solve his dropout problem this year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Packers catch the ball more often in the second half.
— The Packers offensive line had only 69 total tackles, and Jordan Love leads the NFL in sack percentage. This is once again a great pass blocking offensive line.
— The Packers rank 29th in pass rush win rate. It has to be better, right? Trading Preston Smith will provide more snaps for Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Arron Mosby and Brenton Cox Jr. and the Packers need juvenile talent who can advance at a lower level.
