The Green Bay Packers will try to solidify their playoff position and deal a significant blow to their opponent’s postseason hopes when the undermanned San Francisco 49ers arrive at Lambeau Field for a game slow Sunday afternoon.
Matt LaFleur’s team will be without Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Cooper, two key playmakers on the defense, but Kyle Shanahan’s team will defeat its starting point guard (Brock Purdy) and leading rusher (Nick Bosa) in Sunday’s decisive matchup.
Will the Packers be able to give the 49ers a playoff shot?
Here are five things to watch and the forecast for week 12:
Facing the backup QB
Brandon Allen, drafted in 2016, will start as quarterback for the 49ers. He’s an experienced backup, but his teams are just 2-7 overall when he starts and he hasn’t started a game since 2021. Against a backup quarterback, the Packers must start quick, defend the run and avoid game-changing mistakes. The plan has to be to put it all on Allen’s shoulders. If the Packers advance quickly, keep Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on the field and avoid turnovers, it’s challenging to imagine the 49ers escaping Lambeau Field with a victory. Don’t be surprised if Kyle Shanahan gets very innovative when it comes to producing pieces for elite quarterbacks like McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, so the Packers need to be ready for anything. Allen is a backup, but Shanahan is the top quarterback and the 49ers still have talent around them.
Jordan Love Protection
Without Bosa, the Packers have a chance to dominate the offensive line. The 49ers have really struggled to disrupt the passer with Bosa out this season, and the defense essentially fell apart after Bosa was out last week against Geno Smith and the Seahawks. The 49ers have signed veteran Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins, but without Bosa on the field, neither of them are as perilous. Jordan Love should have time to attack some of the frail spots in the 49ers’ coverage. Consistently playing from pristine pockets is the best way to become more proficient in the passing game, and the Packers should have that on Sunday.
Red zone reflector again
Both the Packers and 49ers have made gaining yards look simple this season, but scoring in the red zone has been a recurring problem for both teams. The 49ers rank 27th in red zone touchdown percentage (48.8), while the Packers rank 28th (48.7). Can the Packers finally start to get going in their slow 20s? The 49ers have given up touchdowns on 20 of their 32 red zone trips this season, so they’re not a top red zone team. It is also obvious that the backup quarterback will likely have difficulty getting the ball into the end zone in the end zone. The Packers will need to find an edge in the 20 on Sunday.
Turnover
Last year’s playoff game ended with an awards ceremony and ended with an awards ceremony. Jordan Love and the Packers need to protect the football on Sunday. The 49ers start the game with a backup quarterback and may need compact fields to score, so it will be necessary for Brandon Allen to throw the ball at least 70 yards every time he gets the ball. Last week, Love made one bad throw that cost the Packers. He needs to recognize the situation after each Sunday’s game – a sack, sack or punt isn’t a terrible outcome. Note: The 49ers are 1-3 if they don’t score many points this season. If the Packers play a pristine game on Sunday, they will likely win.
Facing the 59th
On Sunday, the Packers will welcome a familiar face to Lambeau Field: linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. The 2021 All-Pro wasn’t particularly joyful with how his final season in Green Bay went and was excited to join the 49ers, but he’ll struggle in 2024. Teams are attacking him in coverage and he hasn’t scored a team-high 11 points. Will the Packers find a way to put Campbell in a tough situation? Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft need to get into attack mode when they face No. 59 on Sunday.
Prediction: Packers 23, 49ers 12 (5-5)
Just win, baby. Beating the mighty 49ers at full strength would be satisfying for the Packers, but any victory on Sunday will be a perfect result. This is a golden opportunity for the Packers to greatly improve their playoff chances while also seriously hurting a team that has eliminated them from the playoffs for three of the last five seasons. The 49ers are short-handed, short-handed, and reeling from the NFC playoff race. A clear, impressive and comfortable win would be nice, and it’s certainly possible the Packers get one against their backup quarterback. But I’m reminded of last November, when the Packers faced another struggling NFC West team, starting with a backup quarterback at Lambeau Field, and Matt LaFleur’s team worked its way to a comfortable but mostly unsightly 20-3 victory over the Rams. I won’t be surprised if Sunday ends similarly. The 49ers’ backs are against the wall, so an inspired effort is likely. But it won’t be enough against a nearly full-strength Packers team that smells blood in the water.
