Note: This post detailing the Green Bay Packers’ highly unlikely path to the No. 1 seed is the equivalent of a playoff post this iconic scene. – So you’re telling me there’s a chance! Don’t take it too seriously. Have fun.
OK. We’ve established that the Packers (9-4) have little chance of making it into the NFC North race, and now they’ll likely compete for a wild card spot in the final four weeks of the 2024 season.
But let’s get crazy: Is there a path to a No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs for Matt LaFleur’s team?
Short answer: yes. However, that would require 12 different results, which the Packers have achieved over the last four weeks.
To earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, the Packers would need to meet all 12 conditions below:
— Packers must win (4-0)
— Lions must lose (0-4)
— The Eagles must lose at least three of the final four
— The Bears must beat the Vikings in Week 15
Here is one example of how this will work:
1. The Bills beat the Lions
2. The Steelers defeated the Eagles
3. The Packers defeated the Seahawks
4. The Bears defeated the Vikings
5. The bears defeated the lions
6. The Commanders defeated the Eagles
7. Packers beat Saints
8. The Packers defeated the Vikings
9. The Cowboys defeated the Eagles
10. 49ers defeated Lions
11. The Vikings defeated the Lions
12. Packers defeat Bears
In this scenario, the Packers finish at 13-4, leapfrog the Lions (who drop to 12-5), the Eagles (who also fall to at least 12-5), and the Vikings to win the NFC North and secure the top postseason seed.
Not surprisingly, the New York Times playoff simulator gives the Packers less than a one percent chance of being the No. 1 seed. In fact, by the game in Seattle on Sunday night, that possibility may be gone and the Packers may be eliminated from contention with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I mean, what kind of assist can the Packers expect from the Chicago Bears?
One more scenario. What would it take for the Packers to win the NFC North? A few less results. But still a miracle.
The Packers would have to win (going 4-0), the Lions would have lost all four games (0-4) and if the Bears had beaten the Vikings in Week 15 – that’s nine scores.
But hey, what fun is it to have a team competing in the playoffs in December without enjoying some crazy, near-impossible and hypothetical fun with playoff simulators?
