The Green Bay Packers (9-4) and Seattle Seahawks (8-5) will face off at Lumen Field on Sunday night in a playoff showdown between one of the top contenders for a wild card spot and the current NFC West leaders. In fact, if the season ended today, the Packers would play the Seahawks in the wild-card round in Seattle.
Can the Packers, who haven’t won in Seattle since 2008, recover from last Thursday night’s hard-fought loss in Detroit and beat the Seahawks in primetime?
Here are five things to watch and the forecast for week 15:
JSN and Charbonnet
Coach Matt LaFleur said the Packers did extensive pre-draft work on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and cornerback Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks’ two main weapons entering the field on Sunday night. Smith-Njigba has developed into one of the top targets in the NFL, and Charbonnet – who is expected to start in place of Kenneth Walker III – is coming off a game in which he threw for nearly 200 total yards last week. Expect the Seahawks to feed both of them against the Packers. Jeff Hafley’s defense will need answers.
Reflecting the offensive line?
Last week in Detroit, the Packers struggled to contain the Lions’ backup defense, especially in the running game and early offensive phase. Can the offensive line bounce back against the robust Seahawks front in Seattle? The Seahawks have five players with 30 or more pressures, and they have been on a roll over the last four weeks. The Lumen field will be thunderous. The Packers need to be much better on offense – both in terms of opening holes for Josh Jacobs and protecting Jordan Love – to beat the Seahawks on Sunday night.
Love versus growing defense
Jordan Love is first in yards per attempt, second in EPA/play and third in passing yards over the last four games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is No. 1 in EPA/retirement over the same time frame. Love is finally vigorous, and since the goodbye he has been more correct and mobile. The Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points per game throughout the series against Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray (twice) and Aaron Rodgers. It’s a good test for both sides – can Love continue to perform at a high level against a growing defense, or will the Seahawks prove their defensive strength?
Transition pressure
Geno Smith is completing 76.4 percent of his passes from tidy pockets this season – only three quarterbacks have been better. Additionally, no quarterback has been under more pressure this season than Smith, who had 200 saves under pressure. He threw 10 picks under pressure. The Packers will need to keep the pressure on Smith on Sunday night. Seattle’s offensive line didn’t give up last week, but it has mostly struggled to protect the passer this season. The faint spots seem to be on the right side of the line. The Packers need to take advantage of this. This would be a good time to start a four-man passing rush.
Big test for CB
The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander and Javon Bullard, their two preferred starting cornerbacks. Keisean Nixon will most likely take the court, with Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes competing on the perimeter against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks are a pass-happy offense, and Geno Smith is an experienced and correct passer. Can the Packers defenders maintain coverage? Survival may require great attacking play in the passing and rushing phases.
Prediction: Packers 27, Seahawks 24 (7-6)
The Packers came close to beating the Lions in Detroit last Thursday night, so the confidence in going to Seattle and winning should be high, especially after the mini-bye and play of Jordan Love last month. On the other hand, the Seahawks have won four straight games, have playmakers on offense and can win defensive battles with a deep offense and quick passing game. Add to that a playoff-like atmosphere in Seattle, where the Packers haven’t won since 2008, and the challenge becomes clear. This game is like a penalty kick. So what should you do when you see a coup? Go with the forecast you want. In what could be a fight either way, I think Love plays one vital role and the defense puts pressure on Geno Smith at one vital moment to facilitate the Packers escape and get a narrow (but very vital) victory.
