Sections Packers vs. Playoff Preview Eagles: Who has the advantage in terms of turnovers and situations?

On Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field, the Green Bay Packers (11-6) will face the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) in the NFC Wild Card round.

The 2024 playoffs will feature the top two teams in takeaways and turnover differential. One of the teams is very good situationally.

Football is a elaborate game, but finding the reasons why individual matches between teams are won every week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of and tackling the ball, controlling huge plays, and overcoming or taking advantage of an injury situation.

So who has the advantage in terms of turnovers and significant situations in the match?

Here are some relevant numbers:

It’s uncomplicated to see how significant turnovers will be in determining the winner of this match. Both teams focused on receiving the ball and scoring points after turnovers.

However, winning the ball won’t be uncomplicated. Jordan Love hasn’t thrown an interception since November 17 and hasn’t lost a single turnover. Jalen Hurts had two interceptions in the first quarter, but has thrown just three in the last 14 games. These teams win the ball – and win many games – because they take care of the ball and force other teams to make mistakes.

The Packers lost six games, but had at least one takeaway in five of their six losses, including three takeaways against the Eagles in Brazil and three more in a home loss to the Vikings. So racking up turnovers is not a surefire way for the Packers to win one of these huge games. But it almost has to be taken into account.

The Eagles turned the ball over eight times in their first four games, but had only seven turnovers in their last 13 games, meaning Philadelphia finished 12-1. Nine times the Eagles had no turnovers. When they failed to secure a takeaway, they only led 3-2.

Incredibly, the Eagles lost the shootout to the Washington Commanders with a five-point takeaway.

Situationally, the Eagles are the better team. There’s no way around it. They finished top 10 in the NFL in third down offense, third down defense and red zone defense. And they were among the league leaders in fourth-down conversions. The only area where the Eagles may be lacking is in the red zone offense, but even then they finished 13th in rushing touchdowns with 20. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts make the Eagles a tough team in brief yardage.

But don’t rule out the Packers situationally. The red zone offense came alive throughout the game, thanks in gigantic part to Josh Jacobs’ dominance at the 10-yard line. He is amazing at finding enough space to get to the end zone against stacked boxes. Love’s ability to extend plays and create opportunities off the schedule gives the Packers a chance to compete in the passing game as well in tight spaces in the red zone.

The third attempt looks like a potential problem. The Packers consistently lost on third down, even though Love always tried to throw off the sticks. Penalties and relegations played a huge part in the inconsistency. The Eagles will only make conversions more tough with an aggressive marking system and a front four that can apply pressure without rushing.

On fourth down, the Eagles exploit a Tush Push to convert short-yardage opportunities. The Packers played 3-on-3, using Tucker Kraft in a modified version of the game. It is possible that one of the teams will break their good streak on Sunday.

As the away underdog, the Packers need to get the ball. In last year’s wild-card game in Dallas, the Packers scored early on a field goal that turned into a touchdown (for a 14-0 lead) and a pick-six before halftime. Can Jeff Hafley’s defense, which survives by taking the ball away in 2024, give the Packers some brief plays and scoring opportunities on Sunday?