Mentor-On-The-Lake, Ohio – A press release from Vista Outdoors has sent a slight tremor through the hunting and shooting community that ammunition and gunpowder shortages and skyrocketing prices are just around the corner.
However, there seems to be scant evidence that such dire worries will soon arise, although existing and hidden roots may cause the choking ivy to choke the availability of ammunition.
The letter was written by Vista Vice President of Sales, Sporting Products Brett Nelson and sent on December 7 of last year. Vista is a major player in the production of firearms ammunition for the government and private sectors. Its brands include Federal and Remington ammunition.
How reported by Newsweek and on various gunpowder blogs and websites, Nelson’s letter states: “Due to world events, our suppliers have notified us of the unprecedented demand for and anticipated global shortages of gunpowder and have significantly increased our prices. We therefore need to raise our prices to offset these increases.”
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Vista then presented a list of various price increases for 2024. These include: shot and rifle ammunition: – 1-7% each; gun: – 1-5%; .22 Long Rifle/Shorts: 1-5%; .22 Winchester Magnum and HMR: 1-7%; foundations – 5%; Alliant Powder: 10% with restricted availability.
After the announcement of Vista, there were concerns that the availability of ammunition would also decrease. This is due to the increased demand for gunpowder. Several factors have led various firearms industry analysts to believe why an impending shortage is real and why it will likely ultimately impact the ammunition supply for shooters/hunters.
Not surprisingly, the Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East are at the top of the list. Stockpiles of ammunition and raw materials – primarily gunpowder – are directed to these purposes.
Federal government regulations that were imposed as sanctions against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are also a factor. With the demise of Russian/affordable steel case ammunition, American shooters no longer have access to this once popular ammunition.
Some calibers seem to be more vulnerable to price increases and availability. Among these calibers are the two most obvious: 5.56 NATO and 9 mm Luger.
Other potentially contributing factors include a general boost in inflation, increased transportation costs, the addition of capital-intensive ammunition production equipment, and rising labor costs.
However, it is still unclear whether ammunition shortages and the sky-high – albeit short-lived – prices seen in the run-up to and first years after the COVID-19 pandemic will return. The murky spot in the firearms industry’s crystal ball is whether all this will trigger another wave of panic buying.
There is stabilization for now.
Very respected southerndefense.com tracks overall ammunition prices and specific calibers. It uses its own proprietary algorithm. According to the group, from 1 to 100 – where “1 is extremely low price, 100 is extremely high price, and 50 is price balance” – the current state of ammunition prices is rated at “43.”
“Our visitors use this index to determine with one simple number whether now is a good time to buy ammunition or not,” Southerndefense.com says.
Of course, not in equal calibres. After reaching a January 2021 spike in the price of rifle ammunition of almost 3 cents per cartridge, the price of .22 long rifle ammunition has stabilized at less than 1 cent per cartridge. The same overall low cost applies to the .380 ACP, a popular personal defense cartridge.
The ever popular 5.56 NATO round has shown some major differences, but they are not very huge. However, after a huge drop in overdue June, the price of the .308 Winchester cartridge rose again to a still modest 67 cents per round as of August 20.
In shotgun ammunition, 16-gauge and 28-gauge cartridges have shown an boost after declines earlier in the summer, which appears to be affecting many other gauges and gauges as well.
However, an inspection of some Ohio shooters and hunters found no excessive prices or shortages.
Brian Holtcamp of Lake County uses only ammo, buying ammunition for himself and his father online. He buys waterfowl for the couple ahead of the season and finds there is “good availability at the usual prices I’ve always seen.”
Ohio outdoor news Columnist Steve Pollick of Sandusky County says he has come across “a lot of hunting ammunition” on the shelves of his local massive box store, but the company “doesn’t sell that type of stuff.”
Troy Conley of Brown County says that while he can usually find what he wants, he has seen “prices definitely go up.”
For Greene County and often Ohio outdoor news co-author Larry Moore, buying ammo has become something of a science that he monitors regularly. Moore says he has encountered short-lived shortages of the increasingly popular .28-gauge cartridges, high prices for 16-gauge cartridges, and difficulty finding the powder necessary for reloading.
“And the price of lead shot is pretty high, too,” Moore says.
Perhaps the best way to mitigate the threat of sudden price escalation and the resulting decline in ammunition availability is to follow the advice of Tom Rowan, now retired deputy chief of the Ohio Division of Wildlife, when purchasing ammunition.
“Whenever I go into a gun store, I always buy a box of ammunition, whether I need it or not,” Rowan said.
