The Green Bay Packers can improve to 9-3 and continue their winning streak after three games if Matt LaFleur’s team defeats the visiting Miami Dolphins on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.
The Dolphins have gone from strength to strength since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game absence. In fact, Miami won three straight games to get back into the playoff hunt after a 2-6 start.
Short weeks are a challenge for everyone – both physically and mentally. Can the Packers handle working from home on Thanksgiving?
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Dolphins in Week 13:
Make the dolphins fight in the cool
The Dolphins enter Week 13 with the third-lowest tackle grade on PFF. Can the Packers spam Josh Jacobs, who just forced 15 missed tackles against the 49ers (the second-worst offensive team according to PFF), and find a way to get the ball to the quarterbacks in space? In the cool and on a tiny week, the Packers need to force the Dolphins to prove they can bring people down to earth. Jacobs only carried the ball 26 times against the 49ers, but after contact on Thursday night, he may need another robust performance.
Burglars’ weapons
Perhaps no team creates explosive plays on breaking routes better than the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa is correct and throws with great accuracy, the Dolphins exploit high-speed pre-snap movement to complicate coverage, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest receivers in the football. The Packers need to muddy going through windows to midfield and prevent Tagovailoa from hitting Hill and Waddle on offense. There’s a massive test ahead for the Packers’ linebackers and midfield. Hiding your relationship before taking the photo will be extremely vital.
Attack, attack, attack
The Dolphins won’t be the only team facing receiving challenges. The Packers need to do the same against arguably the fastest group of high-skill players in football. Tagovailoa prefers to throw quickly and on time – he has the fastest average throw time in the NFL this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Defending quick passes and preventing yards after the catch will be key. The Packers also need to keep the miniature but electric De’Von Achane locked up in the running game. Miami has had a difficult time getting people to compete this season, so the Packers have a chance to make the Dolphins one-dimensional and ponderous if they perform well on Thursday night.
Love protection
The Dolphins present a massive test for the Packers offensive line in passing situations. Rookie Chop Robinson had 22 pressures in his last three games, veteran Calais Campbell is still a consistent winner inside, and Zach Sieler alongside Campbell on the inside had 27 pressures, and the Dolphins weren’t afraid to exploit blitzes from the second level. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks has 13 pressures on 58 blitzes, while Jalen Ramsey leads all NFL linebackers with 12 pressures and three pass deflections. He’s up against Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, they have to withstand Robinson’s speed, the interior has to match the Dolphins’ physicality, and the running backs have to be prepared to blitz.
Win on the third try
The Dolphins rank first in third-down conversion rate with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, while Miami’s defense ranks fifth in third-down defense. The Packers need to find a way to make disruptive plays on the first or second down to create opportunities on the third and longer plays and opportunities to get out of bounds. The key on offense will be to stick to the schedule and avoid obvious passing situations. The Dolphins defense is giving up a passer rating of 63.1 and has a third-best 10 sacks this season. The Packers seemed to have ironed out some red zone issues against the 49ers last week, but can they nail down another massive situation this week against the underrated Dolphins defense?
