The Green Bay Packers will try to earn the No. 11 seed when they host the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field in Week 16 on Monday Night Football. The Packers will have a chance to secure a playoff spot with a few scores before Monday night’s victory over the Saints would also do the trick.
The Packers are the top betting favorites against the 5-9 Saints, who have been nearly eliminated from playoff contention and are expected to be without several key players. While the Saints started 2-7, interim coach Darren Rizzi is 3-2 over the last five games, and rookie Spencer Rattler was two points away from upsetting the Washington Commanders last week.
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Saints in Week 16:
Feed the psychos
A winter game at Lambeau Field with a defense that struggled to get players on the field, especially after the catch? You know what time it is. Feed the trio of psychos – Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. The Packers used this formula to sweep the visiting 49ers and Dolphins during a five-day stretch ending in behind schedule November. The same could be done with the Saints, who are hemorrhaging yards after the catch while giving up 4.9 yards per carry in the running game. This is a game about getting the ball to the playmakers and letting them do the tackle-breaking work they love to do.
Attack the rookie QB
Spencer Rattler, who is expected to start for the Saints, was sacked 10 times after 140 drops. Like most teenage players at the position, processing speed and pocket awareness were obstacles for Rattler in getting the ball out on time. The Packers defense needs to make quick first reads and force the rookie to hold the ball. Last week, the defenseman did a great job of winning one-on-ones and disrupting the lead. Watch the edges – Both Saints offensive tackles have allowed 30 or more pressures this season. If Rattler gets upset early, there could be another sack fest. Don’t be surprised if the Saints’ scheme relies on screens and under pieces to protect the rookie.
Win the LOS on offense
The Saints have no shortage of offensive talent on defense. Both Carl Granderson and Chase Young have over 50 pressures, and 2023 first-round draft pick Bryan Bresee and veteran Cam Jordan can disrupt different lineups. It’s demanding to imagine the Saints winning this game without a dominant up front – both in terms of breaking the pass on early downs and putting pressure on Jordan Love in passing situations. The Packers need to rely on the run game – the Saints give up nearly 5.0 yards per carry and rank dead last in most significant run defense metrics. Expect Matt LaFleur to give Josh Jacobs another chance to feast, especially if the weather isn’t ideal for throwing the football.
Score touchdowns in the red zone
The Saints are eighth in the NFL in percentage of touchdowns allowed in the red zone this season, which is a large reason why New Orleans ranks 30th in yards allowed but only 13th in points allowed. The Packers can’t march down the field and settle for field goals. Matt LaFleur’s offense was more effective at taking advantage of opportunities in the red zone, largely due to Josh Jacobs’ ability to find the end zone from beyond the 5-yard line. The Packers need to score touchdowns early and keep the Saints in the game.
Win the ball
In matches like this, goals often equalize the score. Jordan Love has just one turnover in his last five games and four straight games without an interception and must continue his warm streak into Monday’s game against the Saints. Can the Saints win this game without getting a takeaway or two? New Orleans’ offense will be starting a rookie quarterback and will be without most of its best weapons. They will need tiny fields and plays that change the vigorous. The Packers can’t provide them. Protect the ball, get the ball and the Packers will win this football game.
