The Green Bay Packers will welcome the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers to Lambeau Field for a pivotal battle in the NFC playoff race in Week 12. The Packers, who are now 7-3 after winning at Soldier Field last week, have a chance to get something close to a kill shot on the 49ers, who are 5-5 and suffered a home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday.
The Packers could find themselves in “close to lockup” postseason territory with a victory over the 49ers, while also dealing a devastating loss to the team that sent them home in dramatic fashion last January.
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the 49ers in Week 12:
Reed vs. Lenoir
Geno Smith and the Seahawks found success in the passing game, targeting wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who caught 10 passes in last week’s win, including several on the game-winning drive. Can the Packers sign Jayden Reed this week? Deommodore Lenoir is the 49ers’ leading linebacker and is generally good. The 49ers have allowed just one passing touchdown on targets this season, thanks in gigantic part to Lenoir’s reach, so Reed – the Packers’ top quarterback – will face a challenge on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if the Packers try to give him some shots down the field. As always, explosive plays will need to boost the offense.
Defending extended plays
The Packers defense must be ready to play in a cast and defend against Sunday’s quarterback rushes – assuming Brock Purdy is able to play after his shoulder injury. Purdy holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds on nearly 62 percent of his turnovers this season, one of the highest rates among point guards, and his 37 scramble attempts rank second among point guards. Purdy is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt on long plays and is unsafe as a scrambler, but he also throws all eight of his interceptions while holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds. Will the Packers be able to stop him and force an error or two on Sunday?
Protect Love
Nick Bosa may be out with hip and oblique injuries, and the 49ers’ pass rush is getting hotter one of the worst in football when he’s not on the field. The 49ers are also without Javon Hargrave, their leading disrupter. This could be a chance for Jordan Love to play consistently from immaculate pockets. Love looked like he could handle pressure better last week, likely thanks to his two good legs, but the Packers want him to play time in the pocket. The losing run will be nice with the matchups available downfield if Love is consistently protected on Sunday. The Packers, on the other hand, had success pushing Purdy out of the interior last January.
Win the turnover battle
The 49ers have 16 turnovers, including 11 steals (from nine different defenders), so it may be hard for Jordan Love to end his interception streak on Sunday. But winning the turnover battle – and avoiding giveaways – will be huge. The 49ers are 1-3 if they produce one or zero signings this season. They are also 1-3 when turning the ball over multiple times. Winning the ball at home must be the top priority. After losing turnovers at home to the Vikings and Lions, the Packers must prove they can protect the ball against their opponent on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Red zone
The red zone winner could be the winner on Sunday. Both offenses have difficulty getting the ball into the end zone from the inside 20. The Packers have 19 of their 39 touchdowns in the red zone (48.7 percent); The 49ers are 20-for-41 (48.8 percent). Neither defense is particularly dominant inside the 20, so this is a chance for one (or both) of the offenses to get back on track in the scoring area. The Packers desperately need to show consistency in the red zone after converting two consecutive scoring opportunities last week – an interception and a turnover on downs. Moving the ball wasn’t an issue and probably won’t be on Sunday. Now it’s time to start warming up around 20.
