In ESPN’s midseason predictions postformer NFL linebacker Matt Bowen predicted that Green Bay Packers linebacker Xavier McKinney would be voted the NFL Defensive Player of 2024.
McKinney currently leads the NFL with six interceptions in Week 10. The former Giant will have eight additional opportunities to play his total number of games after the Packers’ bye in Week 10, including two games with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and a matchup with rookie Caleb Williams. Geno Smith, who currently leads the NFL with 10 interceptions.
From Bowen: “McKinney was a difference-maker for Green Bay, using his reach and ball skills to record six steals, which is tied with Detroit’s Kerby Joseph for the most in the league. In Jeff Hafley’s defensive system, McKinney will have more opportunities to make game-changing plays on a team that should make the playoffs. The Packers hit a home run by signing McKinney last offseason, improving their safety group.
McKinney was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in October and had interceptions in all four games in September.
At BetMGM, McKinney has over 2,000 points and currently has the seventh-best odds to be named AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year, so he still has something to work on when it comes to making inroads into the betting markets.
McKinney intercepted a pass in six of Green Bay’s first eight games and also recovered a fumble. McKinney is tied with Lions safety Kerby Joseph with six interceptions, but McKinney has the total takeaways lead with seven.
The current betting leader for this award is TJ Watt, who has 6.5 sacks in eight games and also has a league-leading four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Others ahead of McKinney are Will Anderson Jr., who has an NFL-high 11 tackles for loss, Dexter Lawrence, who leads all defenses with 9 sacks, and Trey Hendrickson, who has 11.0 sacks and 22 tackles quarterback.
The odds and past performance are working against McKinney. Since 2014, the player has won the award nine times in 10 seasons. The only defensive back to win was cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who had six interceptions, a league-high 20 pass breakups and two interception returns for touchdowns, giving them the best scoring defense in the NFL in 2019.
Steals won’t be enough for McKinney. Fourteen times since 2010, a player has intercepted eight or more passes. Neither of them won NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Gilmore’s season suggests the Packers will need to become a truly dominant defense, with McKinney leading the way in the second half of the season, for the Packers to stay unthreatening and have a chance to win the NFL’s top title. He may need a few defensive tries or a signature moment in a large game later in the game to get his shot off.
Betting market leaders will win the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year (as of November 7)
TJ Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers: -140
Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs: +700
Will Anderson Jr., Houston, Texas: +1100
Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants: +1100
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals: +1200
Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers: +1500
Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers: +2,000
Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos: +2000
Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers: +2500
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