Lambeau Field will be the site of key early-season matchups in the NFC North. In week four, the winning Green Bay Packers will host the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in the first division matchup for both teams.
Both teams are surprising with a good start to the season. The Packers won back-to-back games with backup Malik Willis under center, and the Vikings had their two best wins of the season over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.
The winner of Sunday’s battle will have a significant advantage early in the NFC North title race, which looks to be one of the NFL’s best divisions in 2024.
Here are five things to watch and the forecast for Week 4:
Back 33
This storyline has been beaten to death, but it’s still essential. Aaron Jones’ return to Green Bay isn’t just about some former over-the-hill star returning. In three games with the Vikings, Jones has totaled 325 yards, two games totaled 100 or more yards and two touchdowns for an offense that ranks third in scoring. He looks explosive, both as a runner (5.4 yards per carry) and as a receiver. Will the Packers be able to contain his style of play? The Vikings split reps and touches at running back between Jones and Ty Chandler, but you can bet Minnesota will give the former Packers a few extra touches on Sunday. Starting last season and including the postseason, Jones has had seven games with 100 or more yards receiving in the last eight. As Matt LaFleur said, he’s “the problem.”
Pressure on Darnold
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold was one of the best pressure passers in the NFL in 2024. Despite being pressured on approximately 40% of his passes, Darnold completed an NFL-high four passes and didn’t play this season under pressure worth conceding a goal. The Packers have to keep Darnold guessing and hope regression to the mean comes. Pressure quarterbacks are the most inconsistent and turnover-prone quarterbacks, and no one should expect Darnold to be this good against pressure all season long. The Vikings have two excellent tackles up front, but have major problems inside, particularly at center (Garrett Bradbury, 10 pressures allowed) and right guard (Ed Ingram, 10 pressures allowed). Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark need to disrupt the order.
Testing top-shelf defense
The Vikings are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt to start this season, but it’s worth noting that Brian Flores’ defense has faced the Giants (without Saquon Barkley), 49ers (without Christian McCaffrey) and Texans (without Joe Mixon). start the season. The Packers are the No. 1 offense in football, and Josh Jacobs is hearty and energetic. In response to Jordan Love’s injury, Matt LaFleur has developed a deep, elaborate running game that has a good mix of misdirection and power. Expect him to be run-based regardless of who plays quarterback on Sunday. The Packers need to stay on schedule on early downs and avoid the obvious passing situations Flores loves. A weighty dose of Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson, and even Jayden Reed and other receivers in the running game is likely.
To go
Heading into 2024, the Packers have generated three takeaways in three straight games and are tied for first in the NFL with nine total takeaways. Heading into 2024, the Vikings have scored two points in three straight games and are third in the NFL with six total goals scored. Winning the ball is the priority every week, and when two teams are this good at winning the ball, turnover margin becomes the biggest factor in winning. Will Jordan Love or Malik Willis be able to keep the ball in a Vikings defense that has confused Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud over the last two weeks? And can Jeff Hafley’s defense force Sam Darnold to make a bad decision or two? No one should be surprised if the loss turns out to be the biggest highlight of Sunday’s game.
In the face of JJ
The long-awaited fight between Jaire Alexander and Justin Jefferson may not take place. Alexander has two lower body injuries and his performance on the pitch is questionable. Even if Alexander isn’t available, the Packers need to find a way to keep Jefferson from taking over the game. This challenge is compounded by the Packers’ injury to cornerback (Carrington Valentine is questionable) and the return of Jordan Addison from the first round in 2023. Sam Darnold distributed the ball to multiple targets without forcing Jefferson, so the Packers can’t focus too much on Jefferson and let others run wild. Finding the right lineup is a substantial challenge for first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.
Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23 (0-3)
After two weeks of doubting the magic of Malik Willis-Matt LaFleur, we’re back to predicting wins – regardless of who will be playing quarterback on Sunday. The Packers have proven they are capable of four key winning factors: creating explosive plays, generating turnovers, protecting the quarterback and disrupting the opposing quarterback. LaFleur’s team will likely need to do all four to defeat the undefeated Vikings. Protecting the quarterback from Brian Flores’ defense will be a challenge, but if the Packers can handle the task before the snap and at the line of scrimmage, there could be plenty of explosive plays. There are also good matchups between the Packers defense and the Vikings offensive line. One takeaway or explosive play makes all the difference for the Packers slow in a one-point victory.
