The Green Bay Packers will begin the postseason without the services of cornerback Jaire Alexander, who underwent surgery on an injured knee and will miss at least the first three rounds of the playoffs. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Packers, who have played without Alexander for all but 10 snaps since he was injured in Week 8 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
So what are we to make of the Packers’ defense without Alexander?
It’s demanding to say exactly, due in part to injuries on the field (Evan Williams and Javon Bullard have missed several games) and at linebacker (Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper have missed several games) since last week.
But the numbers – both customary and more analytical – lead to a fairly basic conclusion: Without Alexander, the Packers were great against a handful of bad quarterbacks and below average or impoverished against good quarterbacks and pass rushers.
Overall, the numbers look pretty good. Really good. However, the numbers are also heavily impacted by the Packers’ dominant snaps against backups Brandon Allen, Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell.
The pass defense struggled in matchups with Jared Goff (twice), Tua Tagovailoa and Sam Darnold completing over 70 percent of their passes and being over 50 percent successful in the passing game against the Packers.
Looking at the chart below, SR% is the success rate for returns and EPA is the total expected points scored on all returns.
| % composition | Years/years | Environmental Protection Agency | SR% | Result | |
| Week 9 vs. DEFINE | 81.8 | 6.6 | .315 | 58.3 | Ł., 24-14 |
| Week 11 at CHI | 74.2 | 7.5 | .181 | 51.2 | V. 20-19 |
| Week 12 vs. SF | 58.6 | 6.9 | -.524 | 34.4 | W., 38-10 |
| Week 13 vs. MIA | 80.4 | 7.9 | .222 | 57.4 | V. 30-17 |
| Week 14 in TO | 78.0 | 6.9 | .229 | 57.8 | L., 34-31 |
| Week 15 in SEA | 60.6 | 5.2 | -.453 | 34.1 | V. 30-13 |
| Week 16 vs. NO | 50.0 | 5.1 | -.374 | 35.9 | W., 34-0 |
| Week 17 at MIN | 76.7 | 8.8 | .263 | 60.9 | Ł., 27-25 |
Most likely, the backup point guard won’t walk through the door in the playoffs. The NFC playoffs will feature Goff, Darnold, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield (probably) and sensational rookie Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
The Lions (third), Commanders (fourth), Buccaneers (seventh), Vikings (eighth) and Eagles (ninth) rank in the top 10 in EPA recalls this season. The Lions (first), Buccaneers (fourth), Vikings (fifth), Rams (eighth) and Commanders (10th) all rank in the top 10 in return success rate. The conference is full of hazardous passing games.
There are no simple trips after the season. Reaching the Super Bowl requires beating the best quarterbacks and pass rushers in consecutive weeks, and there’s no room for a bad game in a bowl tournament.
Without Alexander, the Packers will likely play Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes at perimeter cornerback and Nixon and Javon Bullard on the outfield. The Packers are hopeful that Williams will be able to return from his quadriceps injury and start the postseason. He would start at safety next to Pro Bowler Xavier McKinney.
The quality of the pass rush is at least as concerning as the situation in the second half. It’s too inconsistent. And not being able to consistently generate quick passes against top quarterbacks is a surefire way to improve your postseason mood.
There are two questions to answer in the playoffs: Can the Packers survive a pass defense against a top quarterback on the road, and if so, is the pass defense good enough without Alexander to win three or four games in the playoffs? ?
