The San Francisco 49ers enter Sunday’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus overall rating, sixth in DVOA, third in adjusted net yards/pass attempts, fifth in expected points added per game and second in terms of yards gained per play.
However, Kyle Shanahan’s team is also 5-5 and hasn’t won back-to-back games all season, making Sunday’s visit to Lambeau Field almost a must-win game if the 49ers are going to stay in the race in the NFC playoffs.
So what gives?
Kyle Madson, editor-in-chief Wire of Nineshelped us answer the question.
“The 49ers’ conclusion is that their strongest lineup is coming back to bite them. I could list 20 reasons why they lost each of their five games and that’s the problem. There is not one problem every week. Sometimes it’s special teams. Sometimes they are penalties. Sometimes it’s their line of attack. Sometimes it’s a pass rush. As a result, they have built fourth-quarter leads in three of their five losses.
I’m not even sure it’s right to blame the injuries. They just couldn’t get enough of some of their starters. Deebo Samuel looks washed. Fred Warner is struggling with perhaps the worst defense he has had in the last half-century. Their offseason acquisition of forward Leonard Floyd didn’t pay off. It’s become a mess, and as we get further into the season, it seems like this year’s version of the 49ers just isn’t very good. I expect some significant changes this offseason as remaining competitive will require a true evolution from San Francisco in this next chapter.”
The 49ers have lost four games by one score and three by three points or less. They lost the lead in the end, losing to the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. From week to week, injuries played a key role in his game. The defense is not that dominant. It’s possible that the weight of recent playoff failures – the 49ers have lost in the Super Bowl or NFC title game in four of the last five seasons – is having a crushing effect on the 2024 team.
The margins are razor gaunt in the NFL, even for statistically dominant teams. The 49ers weren’t great delayed in games, especially defensively. Christian McCaffrey was delayed. Brandon Aiyuk is out of the game. There is no Javon Hargrave. The NFC West is surprisingly competitive. The passing game wasn’t that deadly effective. Add all this to the conclusion that the 49ers – while looking great on paper – haven’t always looked at it in the win-loss column.
The 49ers may be a sleeping giant, a cornered animal. Will the Packers be able to get the kill shot on Sunday at Lambeau Field?
