By almost every useful statistical measure of a football team, the 2024 Green Bay Packers look like one of the elite or near-elite NFL teams heading into the postseason.
Most would probably call the Packers elite without hesitation if it weren’t for one huge, significant obstacle: Matt LaFleur’s team is 0-5 against the Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions.
The Packers have had numerous opportunities to prove they are among the NFL’s elite, but have consistently failed to do so. As a result, LaFleur’s team travels to Philadelphia to face the Eagles – one of the legitimately elite teams based on regular-season performance – as the No. 7 seed. And the Packers are guaranteed just one more shot to defeat one of the NFC’s best.
A huge win may be all this team needs to put the pieces of the puzzle together.
The Packers finished the regular season among the top 10 NFL teams in points allowed per game (27.1, 8th), points allowed per game (19.9, 6th), yards allowed per play (6.1, 5th), yards gained per play (5.2, 8), takeaways (31, 4), sacks (45, 8), sacks allowed (22, 2), rushing yards (2,496, 5th), rushing yards allowed (1,689, 7th), yards per rush attempt (4.7, 7th), yards per rush attempt (4.0, 3rd), passer rating (99.8, 10th). ), passer rating against (88.5, 9th), net yards per attempt average (7.7, 4th), touchdowns scored (52, 8th), red zone touchdown percentage (59.4, 10th), passes resulting in points percentage (45.9, 6th) and interceptions (17, 3rd).
According to DVOA, i.e. the value adjusted to the opponent, the Packers are third overall – including fourth in offense, seventh in defense and fifteenth in special teams.
By EPA per game, or expected points added per game, the Packers rank in the top right quadrant of team levels, meaning they are among the best on both offense and defense after 18 weeks. The Packers rank eighth in EPA per offensive play and fourth in EPA per defensive play.
Numbers are just numbers and numbers can lie. But the totality of the numbers – from Week 1 through Week 18 – paints a picture of the Packers as a great football team.
However, numbers don’t mean much if the team can’t stand up to the challenge against the best of the best.
The Packers couldn’t finish the second half in their season opener in Brazil, allowed the Eagles to run a marathon in the fourth quarter and lost 34-29.
The Packers blew a 28-0 lead against the Vikings in the first half, leading to 28-22, but never had a chance to tie or take the lead after losing 31-29.
The Packers blew a 24-3 lead against the Lions early in the second half, failed to equalize and lost 24-14 at a rainy Lambeau Field.
The Packers trailed the Lions 17-7 in the first half and lost the second half in a row when the Lions made the game-winning field goal to lose 34-31.
The Packers blew a 20-3 and 27-10 lead against the Vikings in the second half, then lost 27-25 when the defense was unable to defend a field goal overdue in the game.
Sunday’s season finale loss to the Chicago Bears was a weird and crazy football game and probably shouldn’t be included in any detailed analysis of the Packers as a team. A playoff spot was secured, Jordan Love left the team in the second quarter and Josh Jacobs scored six carries. If it weren’t for overdue lapses in time management on both sides of the ball, the Packers would have escaped.
Now a novel season begins. The Packers and 13 other teams are 0-0 and have a chance to win the Super Bowl. LaFleur’s team will need three road wins in a loaded NFC playoff field to get to New Orleans for the Super Bowl next month.
The first – and perhaps only – opportunity will come on Sunday in Philadelphia.
The Packers had two chances to beat the Vikings and Lions, but failed to win. They will get a second chance to open the postseason for the Eagles. This cannot be wasted.
The 2024 Packers are a better football team in almost every way than the 2023 Packers. But history will look at this team very differently – the 2023 team delivered a remarkable story in December and January – unless the Packers go to Philadelphia and prove their mettle.
Statistics no longer matter. Not even 0-5.
If the Packers don’t beat the Eagles Sunday, they will rightly be portrayed as cheaters or paper tigers. But they also have a chance to wake up a sleeping giant if they can do what he’s been hinting at all season long. It’s long past time for the 2024 Packers to prove whether they are legitimate or not. A one-off, knockout-style tournament should be the perfect arena to expose what currently lies beneath the elite numbers and mess of missed opportunities against the best.
