The Green Bay Packers could be on the verge of securing a playoff spot and seriously hurting the San Francisco 49ers’ chances of advancing in the postseason with a victory over the 49ers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus tracks playoff odds and game-by-game “leverage” every week.
The Packers can enhance their playoff chances to over 90 percent in Week 12 by beating the 49ers by nearly 15 percent with a victory in Sunday’s playoff rematch, making this game one of the most essential in the NFC postseason race this week.
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The Packers are 7-3 and currently sit in 6th place in the NFC. The 49ers are 5-5, losing to the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West and earning the 10th seed in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers are already 1-3 in the NFC West – after a home loss to the Cardinals – and 3-4 overall in the conference. A fifth loss in the conference – especially to a team ahead of them in the wild-card standings – would be devastating.
With a victory, the Packers could improve to 8-3 and be at least two wins ahead of any team currently behind them in the postseason standings. According to Riske’s projections, a Packers loss would reduce the Packers’ playoff chances below 60 percent while increasing the 49ers’ chances to over 50 percent.
The other extremely essential game in the NFC playoff race this week is Cardinals vs. Seahawks. A Cardinals win would put Arizona’s playoff chances at just under 80 percent, but a loss would drop them below 40 percent.
The NFC playoff race could get a lot of clarity this week.
If the Packers, Cardinals and Commanders all win, the top seven teams in the conference will have playoff odds above 70 percent heading into Week 13, including five (Packers, Commanders, Vikings, Lions, Eagles) above 90 percent.
NFC playoff standings
1. Detroit Lions: 9-1, game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2, will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12
3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4, will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12
4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-17, bye week
5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2, will face the Chicago Bears in Week 12
6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3, will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12
7. Washington Commanders: 7-4, will face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12
8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5, will face the Philadelphia Eagles in week 12
9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5, will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12
10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5, will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 12
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6, game against New York Giants in Week 12
12. Chicago Bears: 4-6, will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12
