Preseason win totals have not been reported, and oddsmakers have the Milwaukee Brewers as the consensus over-under 83.5. The Chicago Cubs lead the NL Central market with a score of 84.5, while the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all posted a score of 77.5.
Here’s what the league situation looked like last season:
- Milwaukee Breweries (93-69)
- Chicago Cubs (83-79)
- Cardinals of St. Louis (83-79)
- Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86).
At ESPN Bet, Chicago is projected to finish 4 wins ahead of Milwaukee, 86.5 to 82.5.
Should Brewers fans feel disrespected?
The market favors the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers
In addition to predicting a 10-win record drop, oddsmakers are giving the Brewers fair odds +273 consensus odds take the division, compared to -102 for the Cubs.
Add up the implied odds for each member of the NL Central, divide the Brewers by the total, and you get a 23.6% market probability that Milwaukee will repeat as division champions.
In contrast, Chicago absorbs 44.5% of the share. The Reds have 14.7%, the Pirates 9.2% and the Cardinals 8.0%.
However, the market gives Milwaukee a decent chance to make the playoffs: +105 for yes, -125 for nowhich gives a probability of 46.6% after averaging the “yes” and “no” percentage odds.
According to the handicaps, they have about the same chance of winning the league as entering the league with a wild card.
When it comes to the competitiveness ceiling, the books leave brewers in no doubt. On +5455The Brewers have the 20th highest World Series odds, ranking behind the likes of Detroit Tigers; Chicago is 11th. They are 8th in terms of opportunities win the NL pennant, behind Jesse Winker’s Cubs (6th) and Mets (3rd).
Compare that to their rating, which was 10th in MLB.com’s rankings power rankingscompared to the 13th-place Cubs. Which predictions about Milwaukee’s prospects will prove closer to the truth?
A few things have certainly changed in the NL Central. Milwaukee lost a few pieces in free agency led by the shortstop Willy Adames. He paced the team with 32 HR and 112 RBI and accumulated 3.1 WAR at a key position. The Giants signed him earlier in the offseason for seven years and $182 million. Six days, then division rival Cubs added something of their own.
A mighty team of brewers gives them a chance to achieve better results again
In the December trade, Chicago traded third baseman Isaac Paredes for Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker (.289/.408/.585, 4.7 WAR in 78 games in 2024), a definite addition to the lineup despite Paredes’ production. They also acquired pitcher Colin Rea away from those same Brewers, gaining a decent backfield starter.
However, Rei’s elderly team replaced him – improved – by adding Yankees arm Nestor Cortes, sending reliever Devin Williams in return. Losing Williams hurts, but Cortes should be a valuable third man behind Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Milwaukee re-signed Trevor Megill, so it’s not like Williams’ absence left the bullpen empty.
Jackson Chourio should only improve upon his excellent rookie campaign. A projected member of the starting lineup, center fielder Garrett Mitchell, has a chance to build on his excellent play in 196 games with the Bats last season, and Christian Yelich should be ready for spring training after season-ending back surgery in 2024.
In the rotation, Peralta is a shadowy horse Cy Young Candidate, drawing 15th shortest course we’re 10 spots behind former Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes in the awards category. Both are related at +3500 lead MLB in strikeouts. Peralta struck out 200 batters last season.
There’s a lot to look forward to in Brewtown. Before the 2024 season their total win was 77.5below the Cubs and Reds. Milwaukee surpassed that mark by 15.5 wins. Their second straight NL Central crown was already the franchise’s first since the divisions were realigned to three per league in 1994.
If they want tri-peat, they will have to exceed expectations once again.
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